Solar grade silicon price trend
The solar grade silicon market has seen an overall price increase this week due to China's carbon emission regulations, which restrict electricity consumption and production by companies. Solar grade monocrystalline silicon prices in the market remained at around RMB255/KG-RMB260/KG (USD36/KG), up around 25%, while polycrystalline silicon prices were quoted at around RMB130/KG-RMB135/KG (USD18.5/KG), up around 24.6%. Bulk prices for second and third tier solar grade monocrystalline silicon material rose slightly to around RMB270/KG (USD37.25/KG), an increase of around 25.5%.
Solar grade silicon production enterprises, because of China's strict restrictions on the use of electricity policy, the use of electricity major solar grade silicon enterprises production was greatly affected, will further intensify the contradiction between supply and demand, operation and shipment, China's main sixteen solar grade silicon enterprises are expected to affect production 40-50%, a number of primary polysilicon enterprises to limit the implementation of electricity policy shutdown debugging overhaul equipment. The recent implementation of China's restrictions on the use of electricity in factories and restrictions on factory production is expected to have no signs of relaxation by the end of 2021, the direction of the later policy cannot be predicted, the short term PV crystal silicon material market is in short supply, the downstream PV silicon wafer enterprises basically stop purchasing hold a wait-and-see state, NEIMENG, XINJIANG, NINGXIA, QINGHAI, etc. as the main source of solar grade silicon material. The subsequent impact on the PV industry needs to be continuously observed. Overall, because of the policy of limiting electricity consumption in factories, the output of solar grade silicon in China in October, November and December fell far short of the demanded output and the gap was huge. Later solar grade silicon in the case of no change in electricity restriction policy, solar grade silicon prices will be fiercely turbulent, the late photovoltaic panel prices to produce a great push up.
Photovoltaic silicon wafer price trend
Several major PV wafer producers have suspended shipments and offers this week because of the rise in silicon material in the PV wafer market. Notice China's National Day holiday (October 8 official work), will increase prices, the magnitude of the increase needs to be observed, with the low price of the early inventory resources gradually reduced, October PV solar wafer prices will be further pushed up, PV monocrystalline wafer G1 158.75mm, PV monocrystalline wafer M6 166mm, PV monocrystalline wafer M10 182mm, PV monocrystalline wafer G12 210mm PV wafers because of the National Day holiday, several major PV wafer manufacturers in October the latest offer is not out, the lowest PV solar wafer prices are expected to be more than 10%, PV polysilicon wafers, the impact of soaring prices of solar grade silicon, market transactions are at a standstill, the downstream polycrystalline cell production enterprises wait and see state.
Affected by China's policy of limiting the use of electricity by enterprises, most PV wafer enterprises' start-ups were reduced, with capacity utilization reaching 60-70%. Near the end of the month, photovoltaic wafer enterprises will soon sign after-market orders, due to the upstream solar grade silicon prices supply incremental shortage, the impact of some enterprises production power restrictions, production costs rise, photovoltaic wafer procurement volume decline, after the market price quotes continue to rise, photovoltaic wafer price quotes the main factors by solar grade silicon materials and China's power restriction policy, photovoltaic wafer enterprises cost pressure increased sharply, photovoltaic Silicon wafer prices will continue to rise.
Solar cell price trend
This week's solar cell by the upstream solar grade silicon material price increases and restrictions on the enterprise electricity, restricting the impact of enterprise production policy, pressure multiplied, production capacity start rate in 50-60%, the market offer confusion. The biggest factor affecting solar cell prices recently is that. the end of September solar grade silicon material rose sharply, causing leading PV silicon wafer enterprises to stop quoting, and a few enterprises quoted PV silicon wafer prices rose by about 10%, resulting in solar cell costs rising, with little profit or in a loss-making situation. As solar cell production enterprises have huge shutdown costs, once the shutdown and then start there will be a waste of materials and a long time to debug in order to normal production, so restrict the impact of the enterprise electricity policy on solar cell enterprises more serious, solar cell enterprises are not easy to stop production, once the shutdown will not be easy to start again. Downstream photovoltaic solar module manufacturers, because of power restrictions and EVA aluminum frame prices soared, solar panel purchase orders decreased a lot. However, due to the price increase of solar grade silicon material caused by the price increase of photovoltaic silicon wafers, and restrict the impact of enterprise electricity policy (stop working 3 days a week and work 4 days), the start-up rate is low, the subsequent solar cell supply is tight, the price will rise further. Some solar cell enterprises suspended quotations and shipments, solar cells are expected to rise by about 5-12% in October.
The current price of each size solar cell product at the end of September M6 166mm solar cell price at RMB1.14/W (USD0.18/W), large size products driven by rising costs and downstream demand, M10 182mm, G12 210mm solar cell prices are RMB1.10/W (USD0.161/W), RMB1.09/W （USD0.157/W）.At the beginning of October, several leading solar cell manufacturing enterprises will reduce their production due to the restriction of electricity policy, which will aggravate the tight supply of solar cells, and the price increase will be very intense, and the downstream PV module manufacturers may not be able to meet their production schedule in October because of the rise of solar cells and the soaring cost of PV module auxiliary materials, and the start-up rate will drop. Solar cell price adjustment needs to be decided by the downstream PV module enterprises order situation, solar cell prices will rise further in October.
Photovoltaic module price trend
This week, PV module prices rose sharply, the first-line PV module enterprises at the end of September offer, M10 182mm PV module 400W-550W PV module factory offer RMB1.95/W (USD0.275/W), G12 210mm solar cell module 400W-520W factory price, RMB1.93/W (USD0.273/W), double-sided power generation PV module RMB2.95/W (USD0.273/W). RMB2.0/W (USD0.28/W) for double-sided photovoltaic modules. PV solar module packaging with EVA, aluminum frame, glass, junction box, silicone prices rose, solar cell link prices rose, in addition to module enterprises basically received a notice to limit electricity, can only stop working 3 days a week, work 4 days a week, PV module production enterprises in a difficult situation. Second- and third-tier PV module enterprises are in a wait-and-see situation, with the start-up rate at around 50%. Downstream PV EPC installers are on the fence about the price increase of PV modules, with a low willingness to purchase. PV power plant projects are under great cost pressure and PV module manufacturers are currently on the verge of losing money. PV module production costs under the government's power restriction policy High costs Insufficient start-ups, with PV module factory output reduced, PV module supply is tight and solar panel prices are expected to continue to rise in October-November.
Solar panel price trend forecast
The PV industry is a China-dominated industry, with silicon, silicon wafers, cells and PV modules accounting for more than 70% of each product, taking into account that PV module enterprises in Southeast Asia are also invested in and controlled by Chinese companies, with PV modules accounting for more than 90% of the total. China's photovoltaic power plant installations account for more than 50% of the world, so the supply and demand for PV modules in China will determine the price and installation in other regions.
This time, China's policy of limiting the use of electricity by enterprises, so that the general production of the PV industry chain to reduce the supply shortage, solar-grade silicon, photovoltaic silicon wafers, solar cell prices continue to rise, raw materials, EVA film , aluminum frame shortage and soaring prices, photovoltaic module enterprises in a difficult situation, low start-up rate, more intensified the shortage of products around the world.
It is expected that the price of photovoltaic modules will be sharply turbulent in October-November, with a continuous upward trend until the end of 2021.